Altman Z-Score Calculator
Estimate a company's bankruptcy-risk Z-score from five financial ratios (manufacturing model).
輸入資料
計算結果
重點速覽：The Altman Z-score (manufacturing model) is Z = 1.2 x X1 + 1.4 x X2 + 3.3 x X3 + 0.6 x X4 + 1.0 x X5, where X1..X5 are the five ratios. Higher Z = lower bankruptcy risk. Thresholds are probabilistic: Z > 2.99 safe, 1.81-2.99 grey, < 1.81 distressed — not an absolute judgement. X3 (EBIT/assets) has the highest weight (3.3), so improving operating profit most raises Z.
計算公式
Z = 1.2 × X1 + 1.4 × X2 + 3.3 × X3 + 0.6 × X4 + 1.0 × X5。
X1=營運資金/總資產、X2=保留盈餘/總資產、X3=EBIT/總資產、X4=股權市值/總負債、X5=銷售額/總資產。
$$Z = 1.2X_1 + 1.4X_2 + 3.3X_3 + 0.6X_4 + 1.0X_5$$$$X_1=\tfrac{\text{營運資金}}{\text{總資產}},\ X_2=\tfrac{\text{保留盈餘}}{\text{總資產}},\ X_3=\tfrac{EBIT}{\text{總資產}},\ X_4=\tfrac{\text{股權市值}}{\text{總負債}},\ X_5=\tfrac{\text{銷售額}}{\text{總資產}}$$使用說明
- Enter the five ratios (X1 to X5) for the company.
- View the Z-score and its risk zone.
- Use the result as a warning and combine with cash flow and industry factors.
不同財務比率組合對應的 Altman Z 分數與風險區間 (製造業經典模型)
| X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | Z 分數 | 風險區間 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −0.05 | −0.10 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.586 | 危險區 (Z < 1.81) |
| 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 1.604 | 危險區 (Z < 1.81) |
| 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.195 | 灰色區 (1.81–2.99) |
| 0.15 | 0.30 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 2.994 | 安全區 (Z > 2.99) |
| 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 4.525 | 安全區 (Z > 2.99) |
理財情境案例
案例一：計算並判讀 Z 分數
某製造業上市公司 X1 = 0.1、X2 = 0.2、X3 = 0.15、X4 = 0.5、X5 = 1.0。
Z = 1.2 × 0.1 + 1.4 × 0.2 + 3.3 × 0.15 + 0.6 × 0.5 + 1.0 × 1.0 = 0.12 + 0.28 + 0.495 + 0.3 + 1.0 = 2.195，落在灰色區 (1.81–2.99)，代表財務尚可但需審慎觀察。
案例二：從危險區到安全區的改善路徑
一家瀕危公司 X1=−0.05、X2=−0.1、X3=0.02、X4=0.2、X5=0.6，Z = 0.586，深陷危險區。經重整 (改善現金流、削減負債、提升營運利潤)，各比率升至 X1=0.15、X2=0.3、X3=0.18、X4=1.0、X5=1.2，Z 升至 2.994，進入安全區。
由於 X3 (EBIT/總資產) 權重最高 (3.3)，提升核心營運獲利對改善 Z 分數最見效;其次是降低負債以拉高 X4。這說明 Z 分數不僅能診斷風險，也能指出改善的優先順序。
常見問題
How do I read the Z-score zones?
In the original manufacturing model: Z > 2.99 is the safe zone, 1.81-2.99 the grey zone (watch), and < 1.81 the distress zone (high bankruptcy risk within two years historically). The thresholds are probabilistic risk gradings, not a definitive bankruptcy call.
Which ratio matters most?
X3 (EBIT / total assets) has the highest weight (3.3), so improving core operating profitability is the most effective way to raise Z. The next is X4 (equity / liabilities) — reducing leverage also helps. This turns the score into a clear improvement priority list.
Is one model enough for all firms?
No. This calculator uses the manufacturing-company model. Private firms use the Z'-score (with equity/liabilities at book value and no market-value weighting), and non-manufacturers/service firms use the Z''-score (dropping X5). Apply the right model for the firm type; misuse can misgrade risk.
What are the limitations of the Z-score?
It is a statistical warning based on historical financials, not a prophecy. It can be distorted by one-off items, accounting policies and industry specifics, and does not capture management, market or macro shocks. Use it alongside cash flow, liquidity, industry cycles and qualitative factors, not as a standalone verdict. In Hong Kong, also watch the company's filings with the Companies Registry and any credit-rating alerts.
Is the Z-score useful in Hong Kong?
Yes — as a screening tool for listed and private companies' financial health, supplier/customer credit risk and investment due diligence. But local context matters: rely on audited accounts, note industry differences, and for listed firms also read disclosures and any credit-rating changes. The score flags risk early; judgement and other data confirm it.
相關工具
參考資料
內容審核：香港計算器財經團隊。計算邏輯與公式參考香港金融管理局（HKMA）及投資者及理財教育委員會（IFEC）之個人理財計算指引，結果僅供參考，實際以相關機構公佈為準。